New study could help predict when the next big earthquake might hit Western Washington

SEATTLE — A new study could help us predict when the next major earthquake might hit in Western Washington.

According to the Washington State Department of Natural Resources (DNR), the study published in Tectonics paints a picture of a “new origin story” for the Seattle fault zone.

It posits that “an island chain was pulled toward the larger continent about 55 million years ago, ran into the North American plate and split in two, with part of the chain going over the top of the crust layer, and the rest getting sucked underneath it.”

“This fascinating study from one of our geophysicists at the Department of Natural Resources could shape understanding of this region for the next generation,” said Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz. “This could help scientists more accurately predict when the next ‘big one’ will hit, and how we can prevent catastrophic loss of life and millions of dollars in damage.”

The study was also one that lead author and DNR geophysicist Megan Anderson labeled “a total surprise.”

“It wasn’t something we were going for originally, but our results predict a major ancient fault where the Seattle fault is today,” she described.

Anderson says that the Seattle fault is capable of causing a 7.2 magnitude earthquake, and that this study helped reveal “key secret seismic data” that had previously been missed.

This fault intersects with the Cascadia Subduction Zone, which is believed to be capable of producing a so-called “megathrust” earthquake.

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