While the BA.2 subvariant was found in nearly 25% of COVID cases tested at UW’s virology lab, health officials believe the data is likely catching up to reality.
“If you look at the CDC’s latest release, (BA.2) is about one-third (of all cases). 34.9%, a little bit more than one-third in the United States,” Dr. Ali Mokdad, a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), said. “This one is doubling so fast, so by the time you get the results, it’s already five or 10% more.”
Mokdad said BA.2 likely accounts for “at least 40%, potentially 50%” of all COVID cases. He said BA.2 could also spread significantly further within the next month.
BA.2 was first detected in Washington state in January, initially emerging and spreading quickly in the United Kingdom. A major concern from Mokdad is the unknown surrounding the subvariant.
“It’s yet to be seen if BA.2 will infect people who have been infected by BA.1 and omicron. That would be a disaster, and we will see a surge again,” Mokdad said.
One silver lining could be the timing of BA.2′s spread in the United States. With warmer weather ahead, it could help slow the spread of the subvariant. However, Mokdad said there’s a larger factor that will help: many Americans have already been infected with some form of COVID-19.
“We mismanaged the pandemic. We didn’t do a good job of preventing the spread of the virus. We have more people infected, especially with omicron. So we have more people who are immune and that’s why we won’t see a rise in cases in the United States,” Mokdad said. “We’re not lucky. We didn’t do a good job. We got infected, and many of us died, unfortunately. We are in a much better position, but we paid a heavy price for it.”
Mokdad also said some will likely pay heavier prices going forward, including those who are immunocompromised or those who can’t afford to be infected (i.e., lack of income, lack of flexibility to be absent from work, lack of access to proper resources, including proper spaces to quarantine).
“That’s why we had more mortality and infections among minorities: Hispanic, African Americans, and Native Americans. Their jobs required them to be out and about, and they couldn’t afford to stay at home,” Mokdad said. “We have a divide in this country. It has always existed. Right now, with all the money we are pouring towards recovery, I hope we do it right, and we make sure we tackle these cracks in our health system.”
Mokdad said early evidence shows vaccines are effective in lowering the severity of BA.2.
“Even if you get infected, the vaccines are highly effective to prevent you from going to the hospital and to the morgue,” Mokdad said. “Even if you get infected, it’s most likely you will not even feel like you’ve been infected.”
Health officials say the subvariant of omicron known as BA.2 accounts for about one-fourth of COVID-19 cases sequenced in Washington.
The Seattle Times reports the subvariant has steadily spread in the state, and across the country and Europe, but researchers are hopeful any potential wave of the new strain won’t cause as many infections, hospitalizations and deaths as the original version of the variant did.
The new subvariant, which emerged in the United Kingdom in December, was identified in Washington in January and has remained at fairly low levels since then, state epidemiologist Dr. Scott Lindquist said last week. Now early data from the state Department of Health and the UW Medicine clinical virology lab show the proportion of cases involving the variant has increased over the past month or so.
“It’s been sort of slowly creeping up over the last six weeks,” Alex Greninger, assistant director of UW Medicine’s virology lab and an assistant professor of lab medicine and pathology, said in a Tuesday statement.
While virologists don’t yet have a clear timeline for a potential rise in cases, Greninger encouraged residents to pay attention to their local COVID trends and assured people that vaccinations — particularly booster shots — will continue to protect against severe infection.
©2022 Cox Media Group
