KING COUNTY, Wash. — The transmission rate of COVID-19 may be rising again in western Washington, according to a new report.
The report from Public Health – Seattle & King County comes after the transmission rate dropped in March and early April, falling below what the report described as a “critical threshold.” Officials received that data from the Bellevue-based Institute for Disease Modeling.
According to the report, recent case and mortality statistics provided by the Washington Disease Reporting System show the reproductive number was no longer falling and possibly has been rising since April 6.
The report states: “As of April 22, the number of new cases from each COVID-19 infection in King County was between 0.47 and 1.32 (best estimate 0.89). Overall in western Washington, the reproductive number on April 22 was between 0.61 and 1.39 (best estimate 1.0).”
Because the number is not below 1.0, cases could either plateau or increase, if the trend continues.
“This report once again reminds us that our position is precarious and COVID-19 transmission and new cases remain unacceptably high,” said Dr. Jeff Duchin, health officer for Public Health – Seattle & King County. “We need to double down on distancing and other prevention steps at home, in the community, and in workplaces and we must see these numbers improve before relaxing our current restrictions.”
Health officials have said the best tool to reduce transmission is physical distancing and relaxing this rule could result in an increased number of cases.
“It’s clear that the course of the epidemic in Washington remains sensitive to changes in social distancing,” said Dr. Mike Famulare, principal research scientist at IDM.