Report: Without preventative measures, reopening schools could cause coronavirus cases to spike

SEATTLE — A new report shows reopening schools without taking preventative measures, such as wearing masks, there could be a significant rise in the number of coronavirus cases in the community.

The Washington State Department of Health, Public Health – Seattle & King County and Institute for Disease Modeling (IDM) released the report Wednesday.

Using data from King County, IDM simulated different scenarios and strategies for reopening schools alongside varying levels of community activity and movement outside schools.

Simulating the first three months of the school term from September to December, the report found King County schools may be able to reopen without continued spread of the virus, but only if several preventative measures are in place and if COVID-19 transmission is low in the community.

The report says without such measures, the number of new coronavirus cases in King County could double over the three-month period.

Grouping students by age, physical distancing, wearing masks and safe hygiene may be able to reduce the effect of reopening schools on the spread of coronavirus. How much of an effect the measures have will depend on the level of coronavirus transmission outside of schools.

Even with preventative measures, students and staff would need to be screened for symptoms daily and how much people move around in the community would need to stay below a certain threshold.

“Every part of our society is connected when it comes to COVID-19,” said Dr. Jeff Duchin, health officer for Public Health – Seattle & King County. “How well we control transmission in workplaces, businesses, recreation, families and social networks are related and all impact whether we can safely reopen schools.”

“This analysis demonstrates the importance of both policymakers and individuals across society working together and doing their part to reduce COVID-19 transmission – wearing masks, practicing physical distancing and continuing to let science guide policy,” said Dr. Jamie Cohen, research scientist at IDM and lead author on the report. “This is the only way we will be able to safely reopen schools in the fall.”

The report says at a minimum, wearing masks, physical distancing, good hygiene and grouping students by age are necessary to reopen schools.

Cox Media Group