Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) have updated and extended the U.S. COVID-19 forecasts through Oct. 1.
Researchers are forecasting nearly 170,000 deaths.
Deaths are predicted to remain level through August but may start to rise in the fourth week and increase during September, according to an IHME release.
Some states will see an increase earlier due to increased mobility and relaxed social distancing guidelines, researchers said. The model includes data through June 6, 2020.
States with the highest numbers of deaths by October 1 include:
New York: 32,310 (range between 31,754 and 33,241)
New Jersey: 13,177 (12,881-13,654)
California: 8,821(7,151-12,254)
Michigan: 8,771 (7,098-14,743)
The states expected to have the earliest uptick in deaths, according to current modeling, are Florida, Arizona, Georgia, and Colorado.
Increased travel in some states, as well as the overlap with the flu season, may affect hospital demand in the fall and winter, the release stated.
© 2020 Cox Media Group
