Gasoline and diesel prices in the Seattle area have surged far past seasonal norms, with diesel topping $7.27 a gallon and regular gasoline averaging $5.57, according to AAA. A petroleum analyst Tuesday blamed an expanding web of geopolitical conflicts that show no signs of easing.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told KIRO Newsradio’s “Seattle’s Morning News” that prices are being driven by a cascade of escalations: renewed Houthi attacks aimed at consolidating control over the Red Sea, a possible strike on a Saudi refinery and an overnight Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil facility.
“We continue to see new escalations, and we’re setting new diesel prices almost on a daily basis,” De Haan said. “Unfortunately, gasoline prices are along for a little bit of that ride.”
Instead of a seasonal decline, wholesale diesel climbed another 20 cents overnight
The price spikes come more than a week after Labor Day, a holiday that traditionally marks the beginning of a seasonal decline in fuel costs as summer driving winds down. Instead, wholesale diesel prices climbed another 20 cents a gallon overnight because of the latest attacks, De Haan said.
Nationally, the average price of diesel hit a record $6.27 a gallon Tuesday, according to AAA, as oil markets react to tightening supply caused by the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.
The situation in California is even more dire. De Haan said some stations there have hit what he called “the limiter” — $9.999 a gallon — because fuel pumps are not equipped to display a fifth digit. California’s average diesel price has climbed above $8.09 a gallon, he said.
“It’s kind of a little bit of a Y2K for pumps in some areas of California,” De Haan said.
The crisis extends well beyond what drivers pay at the pump. Diesel powers the trucks, trains and boats that move goods across the country, meaning the record prices are rippling through the broader economy. Costco has begun rationing motor oil purchases, imposing a 10-quart limit per customer, a restriction De Haan acknowledged is “a little jarring” even if most households will not be directly affected.
“This isn’t just an oil story,” De Haan said. “There’s still fertilizer, petrochemicals. There’s still a lot that is stuck behind the Strait of Hormuz.”
Trump suggests a deal could be coming, but De Haan says ‘none of this changes’
President Trump suggested Monday that a deal could be in the works, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country would halt attacks on Russian refineries if Moscow stopped targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. But Russia has shown little interest, De Haan said, noting that Ukraine struck another Russian refinery overnight.
De Haan was sharply skeptical of the president’s earlier suggestion that prices would come down after the November midterm elections, calling it a signal that the administration may not act aggressively on energy costs until after voters go to the polls.
“It’s not like things suddenly just improve the day after the midterms, right?” De Haan said. “Iran is not going to suddenly wake up the day after the midterms and say, ‘OK, we’re done.’ … None of this, in my calculation, changes.”
Oil buyers are paying steep premiums for immediate delivery of crude rather than locking in lower prices for future months, a sign the market sees significant short-term risk, De Haan said. Still, he stopped short of predicting a full-blown supply disruption in the United States.
“I don’t think I’m worried about a real supply disruption in the United States yet,” he said. “But it’s getting more challenging every day.
Manda Factor is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News”on KIRO Newsradio. Follow Manda on X and email her here.
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