For the third consecutive presidential cycle, Arizona is considered one of the key swing states expected to help decide the winner of the election.
Polls out of the Grand Canyon State show a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Three websites that aggregate battleground state surveys — the Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times — each have Trump leading Harris by 3 percentage points or less, within their margins of error.
🗳 Key races
In addition to the presidential contest, Arizona is home to a key downballot race between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake that may help decide control of the U.S. Senate.
Gallego, who represents Arizona's Third Congressional District in the U.S. House, has been consistently outpolling Lake, the former Republican gubernatorial candidate, in the race to replace outgoing independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
↩️ Past election history
The results of the last three presidential elections in Arizona are as follows:
2020: Joe Biden (D) defeated Donald Trump (R) by 0.31%.
2016: Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) by 3.50%.
2012: Mitt Romney (R) defeated Barack Obama (D) by 9.06%.
📈 Which way the state is trending
Over the past several presidential elections, Arizona has been lurching to the left. In 2012, Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee, won the state by more than 9 percentage points. In 2016, Trump won Arizona by less than 4 points, the smallest margin of victory for any Republican who won the presidency since 1912, when the state was founded. In 2020, Joe Biden managed to flip Arizona, winning by just 0.31%, or 10,457 votes.
📌 Why it matters
Biden’s win in Arizona in 2020 was propelled by a high turnout among Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters — a voting bloc that could prove pivotal again in 2024.
