Wisconsin is considered one of the seven key swing states that could decide the 2024 presidential election — and part of the "blue wall" of Rust Belt states considered pivotal for Democrats.
And polls out of the Badger State show it's a toss-up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Three websites that aggregate battleground state surveys — the Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times — each have Harris leading Trump in Wisconsin by 1 percentage point or less.
🗳 Key races
In addition to the presidential contest, Wisconsin is home to a key downballot race between Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican businessman Eric Hovde that may help decide control of the U.S. Senate.
A recent poll by Marquette University Law School showed Baldwin, the incumbent, with a narrow lead (51% to 49%) over Hovde.
↩️ Past election history
The results of the last three presidential elections in Wisconsin are as follows:
2020: Joe Biden (D) defeated Donald Trump (R) by 0.63%
2016: Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) by 0.77%
2012: Barack Obama (D) defeated Mitt Romney (R) by 6.94%
📈 Which way the state is trending
Wisconsin has voted for Democrats in five of the past six presidential elections — the lone exception being 2016, when Trump edged Clinton by less than 1 percentage point. In 2020, Biden narrowly defeated Trump in the Badger State, also by less than 1 point.
📌 Why it matters
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — the so-called Blue Wall for Democrats — are critical for Harris. In 2016, Trump flipped all three, helping him win the presidency. In 2020, Biden reclaimed all three, with Pennsylvania clinching his victory.
