The Francis Forecast: NFL picks against the spread for week 4!

The Forecast has a winning record three weeks in — that’s almost as big as Taylor Swift’s impact on Kelce jersey sales (up 400%)! Week three saw the Cowboys lay an egg which gave us a big loss but we’ll take 3-2-1 which pushes the overall record to 11-7-1 and that is called profit! So, let’s add to it in week four:

Chiefs -9.5 over Jets: This is bound to hit 10 so get it now. The Swifties are learning to read defenses at a faster rate than Zach Wilson, apparently. Last week we had an easy winner with KC destroying the Bears, this will not be as easy on the road and against a good Jets defense but I still don’t see Wilson and company keeping pace. A two touchdown win will make Taylor happy and that’s all that matters. Bonus: putting the over/under on TS cutaways by NBC at 18. (Take the over!)

Eagles TT over 26.5: The Eagles are once again one of the top offensive teams in the league. 6th in yards and 7th in points per game. The Commanders have a nice defense on paper but they have yet to show they can slow big-time teams down. Ranked 14th in yards allowed but just 26th in points at 28.7 ppg. I expect Philly to get to that average Sunday, especially in the City of Brotherly Love. They’re favored by 8.5 which is a lot, so I’ll just say they win and score 27 or more.

Rams +1.5 over Colts: The Rams have played their three 2022 playoff opponents tough to start the season en route to a 1-2 start. They’ll do the same against an inferior Colts team still trying to find their identity. Not sure if Anthony Richardson will start at quarterback or it’ll be the Gardner Minshew show again but either way, I’ll take Matthew Stafford to find a way to get his guys to 2-2. Colts also coming off an emotional road upset. Take the points that’s a gift, I think the Rams win outright on the road.

Browns -2.5 over Ravens: The team that has the #1 defense in the NFL after three weeks? Not the Niners or the Cowboys or the Eagles. It’s the Cleveland Browns. They’re holding teams to 163 yards and just under 11 points per game. Expect Myles Garrett to give Lamar Jackson fits. Maybe it’s a different outcome later in the year at Baltimore but I’ll take the home team Browns under a field goal in this one.

Vikes -4 over Carolina: Ok I’ve seen enough of the Vikings to know they’ve been a little snakebit to start the year 0-3. Maybe some of that is their own doing but that’s different than a rebuilding team in Carolina who just isn’t there yet. Captain Kirk will know to get the ball out early against the good pass rush just like Geno did a week ago. They’ll also harass Bryce Young if he’s ready to play again. Vikings finally get a win and a cover. I think they beat Carolina by a touchdown.

Dolphins/Bills over 53.5: The top two offenses in football face off in Orchard Park. Miami coming off a 10 touchdown 70 spot against Denver and the Bills averaging a steady 30 ppg, this has the makings of another shootout. Yes, that’s completely chasing public money and overreacting to last week’s results but the two times these teams met in Buffalo last year, including the playoffs back in January, they went over 60. I say don’t question a track meet just bet it over and enjoy the show!

LOCKS OF THE WEEK:

LA Chargers TT over 27.5: Get it now, this will be over 28.5 in a day or two. As you’ve noticed I like team totals especially when I don’t trust the other teams offense to carry any of the load. Justin Herbert has been GREAT the first three weeks. Hanging with the Dolphins and Titans and lighting up the Vikes. His connection with Keenan Allen is key AND he may get Austin Ekeler back in the fold this week. The Raiders, they’re meh so far. I think LA scores a bunch at home in this divisional game.

Seahawks/Giants over 47.5: and finally a Seahawks pick. I think this number should be closer to 50 and it may well be by kickoff. But now it’s low for a game featuring two of the weakest defensive teams in the league by stats. Seattle and NYG ranked 30th and 31st in total yards. Two top 10 quarterbacks should trade touchdowns in this one. I’m feeling like it will be another 30+ point performance from Geno and company. Danny Dimes? He’ll add at least 20. There you go. Over the total!

Good luck everyone, enjoy the Swiftie NFL invasion!

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