The Francis Forecast for Week 9

NFL picks against the spread for Week 9.

The Forecast is officially on a skid. Nothing too bad, but after 5 winning weeks we’ve had three straight bogies on the card. It seems the “Locks” are anything but (0-6 during this stretch) and dragging down the overall average. After a 3-4-1 week 8 we’re still looking at a respectable 28-28-3 record overall. Hey, I don’t live in Vegas, that’s respectable! Anyway, here are eight more picks for week 9 as we look to get back into plus territory.

Chiefs -1.5 over Dolphins: I’ve bet it many times, with my head, not my heart. When my Dolphins play a good team, they lose. Eagles, Bills and now Chiefs. You’re telling me Patrick Mahomes is going to have another subpar (no touchdown?!) game in front of an entire continent? No chance. The ‘fins defense while improving is still pretty soft, they have to score to win and they won’t outscore the defending champs in Frankfurt. This is basically just picking KC to win it, not a bad bet these days.

Giants +1.5 over Raiders: Do the Raiders have any business being favorites over anyone? Mark Davis just had a Halloween House Cleaning! Gone are the head coach, the GM and the OC. I don’t care how bad the GMen are, with Danny Dimes returning give me the points in this one. There is no way the Raiders will be ready with a game plan polished enough amid all the turmoil to get this done.

Cowboys +3 over Eagles: Time for Philly to lose another. Just my gut but many forgot the Cowboys after they were dismantled by the Niners. They came back with two pretty good wins. This is a division rivalry and it will be close, give me the points and a Dallas offense that should be able to score a little to keep pace with the Eagles who will try and run the rock and chew the clock.

Patriots/Commanders over 40.5: The Patriots have allowed 31 and 29 points in their last two outings. Sam Howell is licking his chops! Yes, I said, Sam Howell who is quietly putting up some numbers this season. They scored 31 against Philly last week. On the other side, the Pats offense should contribute some against a Washington team that traded their two biggest defensive playmakers this week.

Seahawks +5.5 over Ravens: I wish this was 6 or 6.5 and it may be by kickoff but I’ll take points in a matchup of two hot teams that play very similar ball. The Seahawks rarely get blown out, they play well in the 10 a.m. time zone (since 2018 they’ve won 15 of 19 at that early hour) and if Geno doesn’t give it away they’ll score a few points. Will they be able to corral Lamar Jackson. Maybe not enough to get the win but certainly to get the cover. Call it 29-24 Ravens.

Rams +3 over Packers: This pick is in the same vein as the Raiders fade. Do the Packers have any business being favorites against anyone? Not in my mind, they have lost four straight, have a quarterback issue and just traded one of their best defensive backs. I realize the Rams could be without Matthew Stafford but Brett Rypien is capable. He doesn’t have to score 30 against the Packers. Just keep it a field goal game.

LOCKS OF THE WEEK (4-11 overall, yikes):

Bengals -1.5 over Bills: The Bengals and Joe Cool 2.0 are back. They have won three straight and Burrow is feeling stronger and playing better every week. The Bills on the other hand have really been up and down. They barely beat the Bucs and Giants and lost to the Pats. Josh Allen is banged up. This is a heavyweight fight in prime time and there is big time recent history between the teams. Give me the home team laying a short number!

Colts TT over 22.5: Garnder Minshew can play a little. The Colts have scored 27, 38, 20 and 23 in their last four games. Yes, they’ve lost three straight but they’re averaging over 25 per game. I bet against Carolina’s defense last week in this spot and the Texans needed one more touchdown to make me a winner, it didn’t happen but I have faith Minshew Mania will get us there. Carolina got their first win, they’ll revert back to form. Hey, the Panthers can even win again, they just need to give up some points 23 to be exact.

Ok, enjoy week nine as I try to stop the bleeding here!

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